WHAT IF India Wins, Loses, or Draws the Boxing Day Test? WTC Final Scenarios Explained

As the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series concludes, India and Australia are locked in a tight 1-1 battle. India won the first test in Perth by 297 runs, while Australia bounced back with a dominant 10-wicket victory in the pink-ball test at Adelaide. The third test at Gabba, Brisbane, ended in a draw due to multiple rain delays, leaving the series tied. The ongoing Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) is now crucial, not only for the series but also for both teams’ hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final.

On Day 1 at the MCG, Australia put up a strong performance, scoring 311/6, with impactful batting from Sam Konstas (60 off 65), Usman Khawaja (57 off 121), Marnus Labuschagne (72 off 145), and Steven Smith (68* off 111). After a costly start, Bumrah bounced back, taking 3/75.

World Test Championship 2023-25 – Points Table

(As of Dec 26, 2024)

What if India Wins the Boxing Day Test

A victory in the Boxing Day Test for India will see them move to second place in the WTC standings with a percentage of 58.33. Australia will drop to third, with a percentage of 55.21. India has a strong record at the MCG, having won both of their last two Tests there since 2011. This win would also give India the confidence to push for a spot in the WTC Final.

What if India Loses the Boxing Day Test?

If India loses the MCG Test, their qualification hopes for the WTC Final will be almost over. In this case, India will not be able to qualify independently. Their only slim chance will be if Australia drop points due to over-rate penalties, giving India a chance to sneak into the final.

What if the Boxing Day Test Ends in a Draw

If the Boxing Day Test ends in a draw, India and Australia will drop points, further complicating the WTC standings. India will move to a PCT of 54.63 and remain in third place, while Australia will stay in second place with a PCT of 57.29. However, India will still have a chance to qualify, but only if they win the final Test in Sydney, keeping their hopes alive for the WTC Final.

The Importance of the Boxing Day Test

With the series tied, the Boxing Day Test promises to be thrilling. India and Australia are vying for a spot in the WTC Final at Lord’s next year, and a win at the MCG will significantly enhance their chances of making it. India and Australia are currently second and third in the WTC standings. A win here could push India to place second, while Australia would drop to third. The teams must bring their best game to the iconic Melbourne venue, where India has historically performed well.

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